uid=HFR,o=lter,dc=ecoinformatics,dc=org all public read doi:10.6073/pasta/edb14581fa6dae179e559e25a81ea5a9 Sydne Record https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7293-2155 Aaron Ellison https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4151-6081 Matt Fitzpatrick Researcher 2023 English

The distributions of many organisms are spatially autocorrelated, but it is unclear whether including spatial terms in species distribution models (SDMs) improves projections of future species distributions. We provide the first comparative test of a purely spatial SDM, a purely non-spatial SDM, and an SDM that combines spatial and environmental information. Spatial SDMs provided better fits to the calibration data, more accurate predictions of a hold-out validation data set of modern trees, and lower false positive rates at all time periods than non-spatial SDMs. Hindcasted projection of spatial SDMs had higher variance than those of non-spatial SDMs. Overall predictive performance of non-spatial and spatial SDMs varied temporally and as a function of niche overlap. Ecological modelers should include spatial terms in SDMs used for projecting future distributions of species.

biogeography modeling paleoecology spatial variability trees LTER controlled vocabulary populations LTER core area Harvard Forest HFR LTER USA HFR default

This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.

Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal https://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html CC0-1.0 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf182 Eastern North America. Coordinates based on WGS84 datum. -101.7 -67.2 +48.3 +27.3 0 1325 meter 2010 2011 genus Fagus species grandifolia american beech genus Tsuga species canadensis eastern hemlock genus Tsuga species caroliniana carolina hemlock complete Information Manager Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 hf-im@lists.fas.harvard.edu Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu

To distinguish between the importance of climatic versus spatial predictors, we fit three Bayesian models to modern occurrence data of Fagus and Tsuga, two tree genera whose distributions can be reliably inferred from fossil pollen: a pure spatial model, a non-spatial model with climatic predictors, and a model with climate predictors and spatial terms. Using high temporal resolution paleoclimate data, we hindcasted the models for 8000 years, and compared model projections with palynological data.

Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu https://ror.org/059cpzx98 pointOfContact The Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program examines ecological dynamics in the New England region resulting from natural disturbances, environmental change, and human impacts. National Science Foundation LTER grants: DEB-8811764, DEB-9411975, DEB-0080592, DEB-0620443, DEB-1237491, DEB-1832210. hf182-01-trees-current-env.csv trees current environment hf182-01-trees-current-env.csv 153953 97d709b7cc40dbf7303d14f4e4ddc934 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-01-trees-current-env.csv lon longitude of 30 minute grid cell (North America Datum 83) degree 0.1 real NA missing value lat latitude of 30 minute grid cell (North America Datum 83) degree 0.1 real NA missing value count number of FIA plots per grid cell number 1 whole NA missing value fagus presence or absence of Fagus grandifolia in a grid cell 1 present 0 absent tsuga presence or absence of hemlock in a grid cell 1 present 0 absent bio1.0 current annual mean temperature (standard deviation units) celsius 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio12.0 current annual precipitation (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio2.0 current mean diurnal range (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio4.0 current temperature seasonality (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio7.0 current temperature annual range (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio15.0 current precipitation seasonality (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value albx Albers Equal Area Conic x value meter 1 integer NA missing value alby Albers Equal Area Conic y value meter 1 integer NA missing value 1419 hf182-02-trees-past.csv trees past hf182-02-trees-past.csv 72561 29c2ad5bd72155db0c61d065c6bf4434 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-02-trees-past.csv kyears.bp thousand years before present 1 1000 years before present 2 2000 years before present 3 3000 years before present 4 4000 years before present 5 5000 years before present 6 6000 years before present 7 7000 years before present 8 8000 years before present albx Albers Equal Area Conic x value meter 1 integer NA missing value alby Albers Equal Area Conic y value meter 1 integer NA missing value lat latitude of 30 minute grid cell (North America Datum 83) degree 0.01 real NA missing value lon longitude of 30 minute grid cell (North America Datum 83) degree 0.01 real NA missing value count number of FIA plots per grid cell number 1 natural NA missing value fagus.half presence or absence of Fagus grandifolia based on low pollen threshold of 0.5% 1 present 0 absent fagus.1 presence or absence of Fagus grandifolia based on low pollen threshold of 1% 1 present 0 absent tsuga.1 presence or absence of Tsuga canadensis based on low pollen threshold of 1% 1 present 0 absent tsuga.2 presence or absence of Tsuga canadensis based on low pollen threshold of 2% 1 present 0 absent 1783 hf182-03-env-past.csv environment past hf182-03-env-past.csv 187697 b0434cd5c95795451402f4cce4219dd2 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-03-env-past.csv kyears.bp thousand years before present (values: 1-8, equivalent to 1000 – 8000 years before present) nominalYear 1000 whole NA missing value albx Albers Equal Area Conic x value meter 1 integer NA missing value alby Albers Equal Area Conic y value meter 1 integer NA missing value lat latitude of 30 minute grid cell (North America Datum 83) meter 0.01 real NA missing value lon longitude of 30 minute grid cell (North America Datum 83) meter 0.01 real NA missing value bio1 annual mean temperature (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.00000001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality (standard deviation units) dimensionless 0.000000001 real NA missing value 1783 hf182-04-hindcast.txt R code - hindcast hf182-04-hindcast.txt 70231 d36877062c68e10bbd4a08766e56e463 R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-04-hindcast.txt script hf182-05-niche-overlap-functions.txt R code - niche overlap functions hf182-05-niche-overlap-functions.txt 15151 ff21b4f3bedf99cccf2c8e5f673c4acf R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-05-niche-overlap-functions.txt script hf182-06-occ-prep-functions.txt R code - occ prep functions hf182-06-occ-prep-functions.txt 6905 c658db8dde375462f0538f11e444324c R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-06-occ-prep-functions.txt script hf182-07-mkMatUtil.txt R code - mkMatUtil hf182-07-mkMatUtil.txt 2365 129ae0e0b462201d3d754c995ad569f9 R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-07-mkMatUtil.txt script hf182-08-glm-amcmc.txt R code - glm amcmc hf182-08-glm-amcmc.txt 7788 531bdb50ed090dc97ad522cee3297131 R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-08-glm-amcmc.txt script hf182-09-spDiag.txt R code - sp Diag hf182-09-spDiag.txt 26582 72e906eb8fdd781fac5eacd62c25d50b R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-09-spDiag.txt script hf182-10-nonspatialspGLM.txt R code - nonspatialspGLM hf182-10-nonspatialspGLM.txt 2448 a023cba18ad12ec07b55e16ac9df2973 R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p18/hf182/hf182-10-nonspatialspGLM.txt script informatics historical regional historical paleological modeling