uid=HFR,o=lter,dc=ecoinformatics,dc=org all public read doi:10.6073/pasta/c7d96f6671c2a65eaa5088acc340986d Matt Fitzpatrick Aaron Ellison https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4151-6081 Evan Preisser https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8737-5619 Joseph Elkinton Researcher Adam Porter Researcher 2023 English

Range expansion by native and non-native species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. This R code allows simulation of the spread of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) under climatic conditions experienced from December of 1951 until March of 2009. The code describes a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in winter temperature and hemlock abundance to model range expansion of HWA. The model is parameterized using multi-year datasets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and is applied to eastern North America.

hemlock hemlock woolly adelgid invasive species modeling region LTER controlled vocabulary disturbance populations LTER core area Harvard Forest HFR LTER USA HFR default

This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.

Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal https://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html CC0-1.0 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf190 Eastern North America. Coordinates based on WGS84 datum. -93.7 -59.7 +48.3 +33.6 0 2037 meter 1951 2009 genus Adelges species tsugae hemlock woolly adelgid complete Information Manager Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 hf-im@lists.fas.harvard.edu Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu

For a detailed description of the model, see: Fitzpatrick MC, Preisser EL, Porter A, Elkinton J, Ellison AE (in press) Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: Invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America. Ecological Applications

Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu https://ror.org/059cpzx98 pointOfContact The Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program examines ecological dynamics in the New England region resulting from natural disturbances, environmental change, and human impacts. National Science Foundation LTER grants: DEB-8811764, DEB-9411975, DEB-0080592, DEB-0620443, DEB-1237491, DEB-1832210. hf190-01-HWA-spread.txt R code used to model the spread of hemlock woolly adelgid hf190-01-HWA-spread.txt 22602 b87dc54323e0ca4c01d41a524b5b52ff R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p19/hf190/hf190-01-HWA-spread.txt script informatics invasive regional modeling https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf191 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf192