LANDIS-II PnET Simulation of Recent Trends in Forest Change in New England 2010-2060

<para>The future forests of eastern North America will be shaped by at least three broad drivers: (i) vegetation change and natural disturbance patterns associated with the protracted recovery following colonial era land use, (ii) a changing climate, and (iii) a land-use regime that consists of geographically variable rates and intensities of forest harvesting, clearing for development, and land protection. We evaluated the aggregate and relative importance of these factors for the future forests of New England, USA by simulating a continuation of the recent trends in these drivers for fifty-years, nominally spanning 2010 to 2060. The models explicitly incorporate the modern distribution of tree species and the geographical variation in climate and land-use change. Using a cellular land-cover change model in combination with a physiologically-based forest landscape model, we conducted a factorial simulation experiment to assess changes in aboveground carbon (AGC) and forest composition. In the control scenario that simulates a hypothetical absence of any future land use or future climate change, the simulated landscape experienced large increases in average AGC—an increase of 53% from 2010 to 2060 (from 4.2 to 6.3 kg m-2). By 2060, climate change increased AGC stores by 8% relative to the control while the land-use regime reduced AGC by 16%. Among land uses, timber harvesting had a larger effect on AGC storage and changes in tree composition than did forest conversion to non-forest uses, with the most pronounced impacts observed on private corporate-owned land in northern New England. Our results demonstrate a large difference between the landscape’s potential to store carbon and the landscape’s current trajectory, assuming a continuation of the modern land-use regime. They also reveal aspects of the land-use regime that will have a disproportionate impact on the ability of the landscape to store carbon in the future, such as harvest regimes on corporate-owned lands. This information will help policy-makers and land managers evaluate trade-offs between commodity production and mitigating climate change through forest carbon storage.</para> </section> </abstract> <keywordSet> <keyword>carbon</keyword> <keyword>climate change</keyword> <keyword>disturbance</keyword> <keyword>land use</keyword> <keyword>modeling</keyword> <keyword>species composition</keyword> <keyword>timber harvest</keyword> <keywordThesaurus>LTER controlled vocabulary</keywordThesaurus> </keywordSet> <keywordSet> <keyword>disturbance</keyword> <keyword>primary production</keyword> <keyword>land use</keyword> <keyword>human-environment</keyword> <keywordThesaurus>LTER core area</keywordThesaurus> </keywordSet> <keywordSet> <keyword>Harvard Forest</keyword> <keyword>HFR</keyword> <keyword>LTER</keyword> <keyword>USA</keyword> <keywordThesaurus>HFR default</keywordThesaurus> </keywordSet> <intellectualRights> <section> <para>This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.</para> </section> </intellectualRights> <licensed> <licenseName>Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal</licenseName> <url>https://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html</url> <identifier>CC0-1.0</identifier> </licensed> <distribution> <online> <url function="information">https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf316</url> </online> </distribution> <coverage> <geographicCoverage> <geographicDescription>New England. Coordinates based on WGS84 datum.</geographicDescription> <boundingCoordinates> <westBoundingCoordinate>-74.0</westBoundingCoordinate> <eastBoundingCoordinate>-66.9</eastBoundingCoordinate> <northBoundingCoordinate>+47.4</northBoundingCoordinate> <southBoundingCoordinate>+40.9</southBoundingCoordinate> <boundingAltitudes> <altitudeMinimum>0</altitudeMinimum> <altitudeMaximum>2000</altitudeMaximum> <altitudeUnits>meter</altitudeUnits> </boundingAltitudes> </boundingCoordinates> </geographicCoverage> <temporalCoverage> <rangeOfDates> <beginDate> <calendarDate>2010</calendarDate> </beginDate> <endDate> <calendarDate>2060</calendarDate> </endDate> </rangeOfDates> </temporalCoverage> <taxonomicCoverage> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Abies</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>balsamea</taxonRankValue> <commonName>balsam fir</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Acer</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rubrum</taxonRankValue> <commonName>red maple</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Acer</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>saccharum</taxonRankValue> <commonName>sugar maple</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Betula</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>alleghaniensis</taxonRankValue> <commonName>yellow birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Betula</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>lenta</taxonRankValue> <commonName>sweet birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Betula</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>papyrifera</taxonRankValue> <commonName>paper birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Betula</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>populifolia</taxonRankValue> <commonName>gray birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Carya</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>glabra</taxonRankValue> <commonName>pignut hickory</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Fagus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>grandifolia</taxonRankValue> <commonName>American beech</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Fraxinus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>americana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>white ash</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Fraxinus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>nigra</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black ash</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Larix</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>laricina</taxonRankValue> <commonName>tamarack (native)</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Ostrya</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>virginiana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>eastern hophornbeam</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Picea</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>glauca</taxonRankValue> <commonName>white spruce</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Picea</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>mariana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black spruce</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Picea</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rubens</taxonRankValue> <commonName>red spruce</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Pinus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>resinosa</taxonRankValue> <commonName>red pine</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Pinus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rigida</taxonRankValue> <commonName>pitch pine</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Pinus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>strobus</taxonRankValue> <commonName>eastern white pine</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Populus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>balsamifera</taxonRankValue> <commonName>balsam poplar</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Populus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>grandidentata</taxonRankValue> <commonName>bigtooth aspen</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Populus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>tremuloides</taxonRankValue> <commonName>quaking aspen</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Prunus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>serotina</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black cherry</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Quercus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>alba</taxonRankValue> <commonName>white oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Quercus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>coccinea</taxonRankValue> <commonName>scarlet oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Quercus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>prinus</taxonRankValue> <commonName>chestnut oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Quercus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rubra</taxonRankValue> <commonName>northern red oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Quercus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>velutina</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Thuja</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>occidentalis</taxonRankValue> <commonName>northern white-cedar</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Tilia</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>americana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>American basswood</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Tsuga</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>canadensis</taxonRankValue> <commonName>eastern hemlock</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Ulmus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>americana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>American elm</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicCoverage> </coverage> <maintenance> <description> <para>complete</para> </description> </maintenance> <contact scope="document"> <positionName>Information Manager</positionName> <organizationName>Harvard Forest</organizationName> <address scope="document"> <deliveryPoint>324 North Main Street</deliveryPoint> <city>Petersham</city> <administrativeArea>MA</administrativeArea> <postalCode>01366</postalCode> <country>USA</country> </address> <phone phonetype="voice">(978) 724-3302</phone> <electronicMailAddress>hf-im@lists.fas.harvard.edu</electronicMailAddress> </contact> <publisher scope="document"> <organizationName>Harvard Forest</organizationName> <address scope="document"> <deliveryPoint>324 North Main Street</deliveryPoint> <city>Petersham</city> <administrativeArea>MA</administrativeArea> <postalCode>01366</postalCode> <country>USA</country> </address> <phone phonetype="voice">(978) 724-3302</phone> <phone phonetype="fax">(978) 724-3595</phone> <onlineUrl>https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu</onlineUrl> </publisher> <methods> <methodStep> <description> <section> <title/> <para>This study used the LANDIS-II v6.2 forest landscape modeling framework with the PnET-Succession v.2.1.1 and Biomass Harvest v.3.2 extensions.</para> <para>For a detailed description of methods, please see the published paper: Duveneck, M. J., J. R. Thompson. 2019. Social and biophysical determinants of future forest conditions in New England : Effects of a modern land-use. Global Environmental Change 55: 115-129.</para> </section> </description> </methodStep> </methods> <project> <title>Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu https://ror.org/059cpzx98 pointOfContact The Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program examines ecological dynamics in the New England region resulting from natural disturbances, environmental change, and human impacts. National Science Foundation LTER grants: DEB-8811764, DEB-9411975, DEB-0080592, DEB-0620443, DEB-1237491, DEB-1832210. hf316-01-climate-input.zip climate change and static climate input files hf316-01-climate-input.zip 1992210 495623c43d5ac51137560b2f80430577 zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p31/hf316/hf316-01-climate-input.zip document hf316-02-disturbance.zip wind and timber harvest input files hf316-02-disturbance.zip 4556 f18b74a2d1982620afeb4c0b46dff5ae zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p31/hf316/hf316-02-disturbance.zip document hf316-03-ecoregion-parameter.zip climate scenario specific ecoregion parameter files hf316-03-ecoregion-parameter.zip 3420 b853915f1884fc505b84af3ac93232b2 zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p31/hf316/hf316-03-ecoregion-parameter.zip document hf316-04-input-map.zip ecoregion, management area, initial community and stand maps hf316-04-input-map.zip 8587706 401e0d110c083728266a064f80b1da2d zip Erdas imagine https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p31/hf316/hf316-04-input-map.zip raster GIS hf316-05-scenario.zip recent trends and grow-only land-use scenario files hf316-05-scenario.zip 2341 a04103a74e17dd7139f90c8f965d06ba zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p31/hf316/hf316-05-scenario.zip document hf316-06-species-parameter.zip species-specific and generic parameter files hf316-06-species-parameter.zip 2608 935860016dc7bc8dcff04b6c7a1bf0fa zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p31/hf316/hf316-06-species-parameter.zip document hf316-07-succession.zip PnET-Succession input files hf316-07-succession.zip 1218 a00656993c02793d53a2a41369f3034b zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p31/hf316/hf316-07-succession.zip document informatics community regional modeling https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf234