LANDIS-II PnET Impacts of Warming on Forest Net Primary Productivity in New England 2010-2100

<para>Climate warming is expected to lengthen growing seasons of temperate forest ecosystems and increase gross primary productivity. Simultaneously, warming is expected to increase summer ecosystem respiration, which could offset gains accrued from longer growing seasons. These responses have been observed during anomalously warm years, but the role of future climate change on phenological trade‐offs and how they affect net primary productivity (NPP) at regional scales in temperate forests remain unexplored. We simulated scenarios of climate change on monthly forest NPP throughout 18 million hectares of temperate forests in New England, USA, through year 2100. Using an ecophysiological model coupled to a forest landscape model, we simulated scenarios of climate change on monthly NPP. A high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), resulted in longer growing seasons that offset midsummer ecosystem respiration costs and produced greater annual NPP throughout the study landscape compared to simulations using the current climate. In spring and autumn months, temperature was positively associated with greater NPP; in summer months, the relationship was negative. Spatially, the greatest increase in NPP occurred in the warmer southern region under a warm climate scenario with increased precipitation. Under a warm scenario with drier conditions, the greatest increase in NPP occurred in the cooler northern region. Phenological trade‐offs will affect NPP of future forests and their potential to serve as a negative feedback to climate change. Barring other limitations, longer growing seasons will offset greater respiratory demands and contribute to increases in NPP throughout the temperate forests of New England in the future.</para> </section> </abstract> <keywordSet> <keyword>carbon</keyword> <keyword>climate change</keyword> <keyword>modeling</keyword> <keyword>net primary production</keyword> <keyword>species composition</keyword> <keywordThesaurus>LTER controlled vocabulary</keywordThesaurus> </keywordSet> <keywordSet> <keyword>disturbance</keyword> <keyword>primary production</keyword> <keywordThesaurus>LTER core area</keywordThesaurus> </keywordSet> <keywordSet> <keyword>Harvard Forest</keyword> <keyword>HFR</keyword> <keyword>LTER</keyword> <keyword>USA</keyword> <keywordThesaurus>HFR default</keywordThesaurus> </keywordSet> <intellectualRights> <section> <para>This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.</para> </section> </intellectualRights> <licensed> <licenseName>Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal</licenseName> <url>https://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html</url> <identifier>CC0-1.0</identifier> </licensed> <distribution> <online> <url function="information">https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf325</url> </online> </distribution> <coverage> <geographicCoverage> <geographicDescription>New England. Coordinates based on WGS84 datum.</geographicDescription> <boundingCoordinates> <westBoundingCoordinate>-74.0</westBoundingCoordinate> <eastBoundingCoordinate>-66.9</eastBoundingCoordinate> <northBoundingCoordinate>+47.4</northBoundingCoordinate> <southBoundingCoordinate>+40.9</southBoundingCoordinate> <boundingAltitudes> <altitudeMinimum>0</altitudeMinimum> <altitudeMaximum>2000</altitudeMaximum> <altitudeUnits>meter</altitudeUnits> </boundingAltitudes> </boundingCoordinates> </geographicCoverage> <temporalCoverage> <rangeOfDates> <beginDate> <calendarDate>2010</calendarDate> </beginDate> <endDate> <calendarDate>2100</calendarDate> </endDate> </rangeOfDates> </temporalCoverage> <taxonomicCoverage> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Abies</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>balsamea</taxonRankValue> <commonName>balsam fir</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Acer</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rubrum</taxonRankValue> <commonName>maple</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>saccharum</taxonRankValue> <commonName>sugar maple</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Betula</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>alleghaniensis</taxonRankValue> <commonName>yellow birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>lenta</taxonRankValue> <commonName>sweet birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>papyrifera</taxonRankValue> <commonName>paper birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>populifolia</taxonRankValue> <commonName>gray birch</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Carya</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>glabra</taxonRankValue> <commonName>pignut hickory</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Fagus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>grandifolia</taxonRankValue> <commonName>American beech</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Fraxinus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>americana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>white ash</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>nigra</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black ash</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Larix</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>laricina</taxonRankValue> <commonName>tamarack (native)</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Ostrya</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>virginiana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>eastern hophornbeam</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Picea</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>glauca</taxonRankValue> <commonName>white spruce</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>mariana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black spruce</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rubens</taxonRankValue> <commonName>red spruce</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Pinus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>resinosa</taxonRankValue> <commonName>red pine</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rigida</taxonRankValue> <commonName>pitch pine</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>strobus</taxonRankValue> <commonName>eastern white pine</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Populus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>balsamifera</taxonRankValue> <commonName>balsam poplar</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>grandidentata</taxonRankValue> <commonName>bigtooth aspen</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>tremuloides</taxonRankValue> <commonName>quaking aspen</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Prunus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>serotina</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black cherry</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Quercus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>alba</taxonRankValue> <commonName>white oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>coccinea</taxonRankValue> <commonName>scarlet oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>prinus</taxonRankValue> <commonName>chestnut oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>rubra</taxonRankValue> <commonName>northern red oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>velutina</taxonRankValue> <commonName>black oak</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Thuja</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>occidentalis</taxonRankValue> <commonName>northern white-cedar</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Tilia</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>americana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>American basswood</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Tsuga</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>canadensis</taxonRankValue> <commonName>eastern hemlock</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>genus</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>Ulmus</taxonRankValue> <taxonomicClassification> <taxonRankName>species</taxonRankName> <taxonRankValue>americana</taxonRankValue> <commonName>American elm</commonName> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicClassification> </taxonomicCoverage> </coverage> <maintenance> <description> <para>complete</para> </description> </maintenance> <contact scope="document"> <positionName>Information Manager</positionName> <organizationName>Harvard Forest</organizationName> <address scope="document"> <deliveryPoint>324 North Main Street</deliveryPoint> <city>Petersham</city> <administrativeArea>MA</administrativeArea> <postalCode>01366</postalCode> <country>USA</country> </address> <phone phonetype="voice">(978) 724-3302</phone> <electronicMailAddress>hf-im@lists.fas.harvard.edu</electronicMailAddress> </contact> <publisher scope="document"> <organizationName>Harvard Forest</organizationName> <address scope="document"> <deliveryPoint>324 North Main Street</deliveryPoint> <city>Petersham</city> <administrativeArea>MA</administrativeArea> <postalCode>01366</postalCode> <country>USA</country> </address> <phone phonetype="voice">(978) 724-3302</phone> <phone phonetype="fax">(978) 724-3595</phone> <onlineUrl>https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu</onlineUrl> </publisher> <methods> <methodStep> <description> <section> <title/> <para>This study used the LANDIS-II v6.1 forest landscape modeling framework with the PnET-Succession v1.0 extension.</para> <para>For a detailed description of methods, please see the published paper: Duveneck, Matthew J., and Jonathan R. Thompson. "Climate change imposes phenological trade‐offs on forest net primary productivity." Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 122.9 (2017): 2298-2313.</para> </section> </description> </methodStep> </methods> <project> <title>Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu https://ror.org/059cpzx98 pointOfContact The Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program examines ecological dynamics in the New England region resulting from natural disturbances, environmental change, and human impacts. National Science Foundation LTER grants: DEB-8811764, DEB-9411975, DEB-0080592, DEB-0620443, DEB-1237491, DEB-1832210. hf325-01-climate-soil-input.zip climate and soil input files hf325-01-climate-soil-input.zip 5594414 4f5198d4ef9d03df01ee75b707756fda zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p32/hf325/hf325-01-climate-soil-input.zip document hf325-02-maps.zip LANDIS-II ecoregion and initial community maps hf325-02-maps.zip 35892 91bb17589ceaeca28ca02c9c898dbecb zip Erdas imagine https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p32/hf325/hf325-02-maps.zip raster GIS hf325-03-pnet-succession.zip PnET-Succession input files hf325-03-pnet-succession.zip 6274 91346deb5ad44b1f59231d0271b3de43 zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p32/hf325/hf325-03-pnet-succession.zip document hf325-04-scenario.zip LANDIS-II scenario files hf325-04-scenario.zip 3699 000e82fdedfdf9f34cbfbe787013f57b zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p32/hf325/hf325-04-scenario.zip document hf325-05-wind-zone4.zip LANDIS-II Base-wind input files hf325-05-wind-zone4.zip 775 9b8eb01b9f8a6294d0421a7522d4a616 zip text https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p32/hf325/hf325-05-wind-zone4.zip document informatics community regional modeling