uid=HFR,o=lter,dc=ecoinformatics,dc=org all public read doi:10.6073/pasta/b26a7d03402dac0daff0e8f3232bac1d Shijia Peng https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3510-119X Aaron Ellison https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4151-6081 Charles Davis https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8747-1101 Isaac Park https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5539-1641 Researcher Tadeo Ramirez-Parada https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9900-8373 Researcher Susan Mazer Researcher Sydne Record https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7293-2155 Researcher 2023 English

Studies that use species distribution models (SDMs) to document the relationship between species’ geographic range and environmental conditions rarely consider functional traits, such as phenology, that strongly affect species’ demography and fitness. Using more than 120,000 herbarium specimens representing 360 plant species across the eastern United States, we created a novel “phenology-informed” SDM that integrates dynamic phenological responses to changing climates. Compared to standard SDMs based only on abiotic variables, our phenology-informed SDMs forecast significantly lower species habitat loss, and less species turnover within communities under climate change. These results suggest that phenotypic plasticity and/or local adaptation in phenology may help many species adjust their ecological niches and persist in their habitats during periods of rapid environmental change. By modeling historical data that link phenology, climate and species distributions, our findings reveal how species’ reproductive phenology mediates their geographic distributions along environmental gradients and affect regional biodiversity patterns under future climate changes. More importantly, our newly developed model also circumvents the need for mechanistic models that explicitly link traits to occurrences for each species, and could thus facilitate the deployment of trait-based SDMs across unprecedented spatial and taxonomic scales.

climate change distribution modeling phenology plant species species diversity LTER controlled vocabulary populations LTER core area Harvard Forest HFR LTER USA HFR default

This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.

Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal https://spdx.org/licenses/CC0-1.0.html CC0-1.0 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf442 Eastern United States. Coordinates based on WGS84 datum. -87.53 -66.97 +47.31 +24.55 2.78 1113.89 meter 1895 2018 complete Information Manager Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 hf-im@lists.fas.harvard.edu Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu

We used digitized specimens from two of the most comprehensive digitized regional floras in the world: the Consortium of Northeastern Herbaria (CNH, https://neherbaria.org /portal/) and the Southeast Regional Network of Expertise and Collections (SERNEC, https://sernecportal.org/portal/). These two online portals include more than six million digitized herbarium specimens from across the eastern United States. Following previously established protocols, we selected species and specimens for analysis when i) there were at least 50 unique collections of the species across space and time in the eastern United States, ii) the specimens included both an exact collection date and at least county-level location information, and iii) the specimens had easily identifiable and quantifiable buds, flowers, and fruits. Applying these criteria yielded 124,847 total herbarium specimens representing 360 species that we used in our models and analyses. These species vary in life history, growth form and native status (i.e., native or not to the eastern United States). Information on species’ growth form and native status were derived from the United States Department of Agriculture PLANTS Database (https://plants.isda.gov/). Our final database included 57 herbaceous annuals, 224 herbaceous perennials, 12 vine perennials, 67 woody species, of which 314 are native and 46 are introduced.

Crowdsourcers hired through Amazon’s Mechanical Turk service (MTurk; https://www.mturk.com/) counted the number of each type of structure (i.e., buds, flowers, and fruits) present on the specimen using the CrowdCurio platform. Each specimen was scored independently by at least three crowdsourcers. To estimate the reliability of each crowdsourcer and their data, each 10-image set scored by one person included nine unique images and one duplicate image randomly selected from the other nine. The nine images plus the duplicate image were presented to each crowdsourcer in a random order. We then calculated a reliability score for each crowdsourcer based on the data for each 10-image set. The absolute differences between the two duplicate specimens in counts of buds, flowers, or fruits, were separately divided by the total counts for each phenological state, and then subtracted from 1. The reliability score ranged from 0 (unreliable) to 1 (reliable). Specimen observations scored by crowdsourcers with a reliability score of zero were excluded from the analysis; if an individual received a reliability score equal to zero for one phenological phase, the reliability scores for that same individual’s counts of the other phenological states were also set to zero (and similarly excluded from the analyses). Our final dataset included a total of 393,610 phenological observations spanning 124 years (1895–2018). We calculated the median number of buds, flowers, and fruits from the multiple phenological observations for each specimen. We then estimated the day of year (DOY) of “peak” budding, flowering, and fruiting if their buds, open flowers, or fruits separately represented ≥ 50% of the total number of reproductive structures. Two species each were excluded from the “peak budding” category (Primula mistassinica and Sarracenia rubra) and the “peak fruiting” category (Calopogon barbatus and Narcissus poeticus) because there were no specimens of these species at these developmental stages. Of the original 124,847 herbarium specimens, 29,094 specimens were scored as being at peak budding (representing 358 species), 55,767 specimens at peak flowering (representing 360 species), and 37,071 specimens at peak fruiting (representing 358 species).

County-level species’ distribution data were obtained from the Biota of North America Program’s (BONAP; http://www.bonap.org/) North American Plant Atlas (NAPA), which included 19,039 taxa from 227 families (as of November 2022). These data are available as binary occurrences (i.e., presence/absence) for 3,067 counties in the USA, excluding Alaska and Hawai’i. We supplemented the species’ distribution records from BONAP using additional data from the GBIF database (https://www.gbif.org) and all available specimen records in the CNH and SERNEC database. Most (≈ 70%) of these additional data points (i.e., GBIF+NH+SERNEC) represented specimens collected between 1960 and 2000. Since the median area of all counties across the eastern United States is 1221 km2, we divided the contiguous eastern United States into 40 × 40-km (1600-km2) grid cells using the Mercator projection (EPSG 3857). After removing incomplete grid cells (those less than 800 km2) within national borders and coasts, a total of 1,158 grid cells remained. We then overlaid grid cells with county-layer species-occurrence data. A species was deemed “present” in a grid cell if more than half of the cell’s area was covered by the county-level distribution of that species. If a grid cell included parts of several counties in which a species occurred, the total coverage of this grid cell was defined as the sum of all intersected parts of those counties.

Harvard Forest

324 North Main Street Petersham MA 01366 USA

(978) 724-3302 (978) 724-3595 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu https://ror.org/059cpzx98 pointOfContact The Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program examines ecological dynamics in the New England region resulting from natural disturbances, environmental change, and human impacts. National Science Foundation LTER grants: DEB-8811764, DEB-9411975, DEB-0080592, DEB-0620443, DEB-1237491, DEB-1832210. Other funding: NSF grants DEB-1754584 and DEB-2242804. hf442-01-growth-form.csv growth form hf442-01-growth-form.csv 16069 b9ceb1d9b7d7a4220f8302207dd6ece3 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-01-growth-form.csv Species genus and species identifier Growth_Form growth form Herbaceous annual herbaceous annual Herbaceous perennial herbaceous perennial Vine perennial vine perennial Woody woody Status status Introduced introduced Native native 360 hf442-02-grid40km.csv spatial data, Eastern United States hf442-02-grid40km.csv 26495 7a5645db498d33f92f2f90995ba559c2 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-02-grid40km.csv Gridcode grid code identifier longitude longitude dimensionless 1e-05 real NA missing value latitude latitude dimensionless 1e-05 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-03-access-cm2.csv future climate data, ACCESS-CM2 model hf442-03-access-cm2.csv 167809 5cd362aa4d10820d236afd3f0c2ca90e 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-03-access-cm2.csv Gridcode grid code identifier bio1 mean annual temperature celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio3 isothermality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio5 maximum temperature of warmest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio6 maximum temperature of coldest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio8 mean temperature of wettest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio9 mean temperature of driest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio10 mean temperature of warmest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio11 mean temperature of coldest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio13 precipitation of wettest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio14 precipitation of driest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio16 precipitation of wettest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio17 precipitation of driest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio18 precipitation of warmest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio19 precipitation of coldest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-04-cmcc-esm2.csv future climate data, CMCC-ESM2 model hf442-04-cmcc-esm2.csv 167893 d2faa1f80ce22927fcf52520195a75ee 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-04-cmcc-esm2.csv Gridcode grid code identifier bio1 mean annual temperature celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio3 isothermality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio5 maximum temperature of warmest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio6 maximum temperature of coldest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio8 mean temperature of wettest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio9 mean temperature of driest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio10 mean temperature of warmest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio11 mean temperature of coldest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio13 precipitation of wettest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio14 precipitation of driest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio16 precipitation of wettest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio17 precipitation of driest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio18 precipitation of warmest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio19 precipitation of coldest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-05-giss-e2-1-g.csv future climate data, GISS-E2-1-G model hf442-05-giss-e2-1-g.csv 168059 e995d2d4c07c0379bd89405816d232e7 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-05-giss-e2-1-g.csv Gridcode grid code identifier bio1 mean annual temperature celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio3 isothermality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio5 maximum temperature of warmest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio6 maximum temperature of coldest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio8 mean temperature of wettest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio9 mean temperature of driest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio10 mean temperature of warmest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio11 mean temperature of coldest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio13 precipitation of wettest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio14 precipitation of driest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio16 precipitation of wettest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio17 precipitation of driest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio18 precipitation of warmest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio19 precipitation of coldest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-06-hadgem3.csv future climate data, HadGEM3 model hf442-06-hadgem3.csv 167632 56277b92aaecaeac384c78bd2cd6c516 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-06-hadgem3.csv Gridcode grid code identifier bio1 mean annual temperature celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio3 isothermality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio5 maximum temperature of warmest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio6 maximum temperature of coldest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio8 mean temperature of wettest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio9 mean temperature of driest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio10 mean temperature of warmest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio11 mean temperature of coldest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio13 precipitation of wettest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio14 precipitation of driest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio16 precipitation of wettest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio17 precipitation of driest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio18 precipitation of warmest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio19 precipitation of coldest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-07-inm-cm4-8.csv future climate data, INM-CM4-8 model hf442-07-inm-cm4-8.csv 167434 bdf01f9171fee5f3c8457f1bb70ced72 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-07-inm-cm4-8.csv Gridcode grid code identifier bio1 mean annual temperature celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio3 isothermality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio5 maximum temperature of warmest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio6 maximum temperature of coldest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio8 mean temperature of wettest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio9 mean temperature of driest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio10 mean temperature of warmest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio11 mean temperature of coldest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio13 precipitation of wettest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio14 precipitation of driest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio16 precipitation of wettest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio17 precipitation of driest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio18 precipitation of warmest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio19 precipitation of coldest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-08-miroc6.csv future climate data, MIROC6 model hf442-08-miroc6.csv 167921 10cbd9db80f049896ec0462a68894ce0 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-08-miroc6.csv Gridcode grid code identifier bio1 mean annual temperature celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio3 isothermality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio5 maximum temperature of warmest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio6 maximum temperature of coldest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio8 mean temperature of wettest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio9 mean temperature of driest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio10 mean temperature of warmest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio11 mean temperature of coldest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio13 precipitation of wettest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio14 precipitation of driest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio16 precipitation of wettest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio17 precipitation of driest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio18 precipitation of warmest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio19 precipitation of coldest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-09-current-climate.csv current climate hf442-09-current-climate.csv 168331 f30c4ec64007bb5722fdafad07acda85 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-09-current-climate.csv Gridcode grid code identifier bio1 mean annual temperature celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio2 mean diurnal range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio3 isothermality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio4 temperature seasonality dimensionless 0.001 real NA missing value bio5 maximum temperature of warmest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio6 maximum temperature of coldest month celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio7 temperature annual range celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio8 mean temperature of wettest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio9 mean temperature of driest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio10 mean temperature of warmest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio11 mean temperature of coldest quarter celsius 0.001 real NA missing value bio12 annual precipitation millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio13 precipitation of wettest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio14 precipitation of driest month millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio15 precipitation seasonality millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio16 precipitation of wettest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio17 precipitation of driest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio18 precipitation of warmest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value bio19 precipitation of coldest quarter millimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-10-soil.csv soil data hf442-10-soil.csv 49834 281b54e02e23a233e436df684037ca21 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-10-soil.csv Gridcode grid code identifier BD bulk density centigramPerCubicCentimeter 0.001 real NA missing value Sand sand content gramsPerKilogram 0.001 real NA missing value Clay clay content gramsPerKilogram 0.001 real NA missing value Silt silt content gramsPerKilogram 0.001 real NA missing value CRF coarse fragments cubicCentimeterPerCubicDecimeter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-11-altitude.csv altitude data hf442-11-altitude.csv 17945 3aadce875a93a9293f52200da7973b9d 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-11-altitude.csv Gridcode grid code identifier Altitude altitude meter 0.001 real NA missing value 1158 hf442-12-phenology.csv phenological data hf442-12-phenology.csv 29157027 e71b90ba248350459f021c9f8d2ffbdb 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-12-phenology.csv species species identifier bud number of buds dimensionless 1 whole NA missing value flower number of flowers dimensionless 1 whole NA missing value fruit number of fruits dimensionless 1 whole NA missing value state US state where specimen was collected identifier longitude longitude dimensionless 1e-05 real NA missing value latitude latitude dimensionless 1e-05 real NA missing value year collection year YYYY 1 1895 2018 month collection month dimensionless 1 whole NA missing value day collection day dimensionless 1 whole NA missing value date collection date YYYY-MM-DD 1 1895-03-09 2018-10-24 393610 hf442-13-distribution.csv species distribution hf442-13-distribution.csv 849699 ffcebe7f36a1a8e57e72eb9690ed1ff8 1 \r\n column , https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-13-distribution.csv Gridcode grid code identifier Anemone_canadensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Anemone_cylindrica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Anemone_hepatica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Anemone_quinquefolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Anemone_virginiana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Arisaema_dracontium presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Arisaema_triphyllum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Aristolochia_macrophylla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Aristolochia_serpentaria presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_angustifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_parviflora presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_triloba presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calopogon_pallidus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calopogon_tuberosus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Chamaecrista_fasciculata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Chamaecrista_nictitans presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clematis_crispa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clematis_occidentalis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clematis_reticulata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clematis_viorna presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clematis_virginiana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clintonia_borealis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clintonia_umbellulata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Dicentra_canadensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Dicentra_cucullaria presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Erythronium_americanum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Erythronium_umbilicatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Halesia_carolina presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Halesia_diptera presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Halesia_tetraptera presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helenium_amarum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helenium_autumnale presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helenium_flexuosum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helenium_pinnatifidum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helenium_vernale presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hexastylis_arifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hexastylis_virginica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hibiscus_aculeatus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hibiscus_laevis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hibiscus_moscheutos presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hibiscus_trionum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hibiscus_syriacus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Iris_cristata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Iris_hexagona presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Iris_prismatica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Iris_pseudacorus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Iris_verna presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Iris_versicolor presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Iris_virginica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lilium_canadense presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lilium_catesbaei presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lilium_philadelphicum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lilium_superbum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Mimosa_microphylla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Mimosa_quadrivalvis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Mimosa_strigillosa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Opuntia_humifusa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Opuntia_megacantha presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Opuntia_pusilla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Opuntia_stricta presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Passiflora_incarnata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Passiflora_lutea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Passiflora_suberosa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_amoena presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_carolina presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_divaricata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_drummondii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_glaberrima presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_nivalis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_paniculata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_pilosa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_stolonifera presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_subulata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Physalis_angulata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Physalis_angustifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Physalis_heterophylla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Physalis_longifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Physalis_pubescens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Physalis_walteri presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rosa_blanda presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rosa_carolina presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rosa_nitida presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rosa_palustris presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rosa_virginiana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rudbeckia_fulgida presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rudbeckia_hirta presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rudbeckia_laciniata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rudbeckia_triloba presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_angularis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_brevifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_calycina presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_campanulata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_bartramii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_difformis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_dodecandra presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_grandiflora presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sabatia_stellaris presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sarracenia_flava presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sarracenia_minor presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sarracenia_psittacina presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sarracenia_purpurea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Styrax_americanus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Styrax_grandifolius presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_catesbaei presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_cernuum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_cuneatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_erectum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_grandiflorum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_maculatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_rugelii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_undulatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trillium_vaseyi presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Uvularia_grandiflora presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Uvularia_perfoliata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Uvularia_puberula presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Uvularia_sessilifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Aquilegia_canadensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Bidens_vulgata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Celastrus_orbiculatus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Centaurea_stoebe presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Cirsium_arvense presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Cirsium_discolor presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geranium_maculatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geranium_robertianum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hemerocallis_fulva presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Impatiens_capensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lonicera_bella presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lonicera_canadensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lonicera_japonica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Malus_pumila presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Malva_neglecta presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oenothera_perennis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Orobanche_uniflora presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rosa_gallica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_odoratus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sisyrinchium_mucronatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Solanum_rostratum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Abutilon_theophrasti presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Agrostemma_githago presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Albizia_julibrissin presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Allamanda_cathartica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Anagallis_arvensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asarum_canadense presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asemeia_violacea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_incana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_obovata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_pygmea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_reticulata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Asimina_spatulata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Bignonia_capreolata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calopogon_barbatus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calycanthus_floridus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calystegia_catesbeiana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calystegia_sepium presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calystegia_silvatica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Calystegia_spithamaea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Campsis_radicans presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Canna_flaccida presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Catalpa_bignonioides presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Catalpa_speciosa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Catharanthus_roseus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Centrosema_virginianum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Chimaphila_umbellata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Cladrastis_kentukea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Claytonia_caroliniana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Claytonia_virginica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clinopodium_coccineum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Clitoria_mariana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_auriculata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_basalis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_gladiata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_grandiflora presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_lanceolata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_leavenworthii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_linifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_major presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_nudata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_rosea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_tinctoria presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_tripteris presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Coreopsis_verticillata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Crinum_americanum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Datura_stramonium presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Dirca_palustris presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Distimake_dissectus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Dodecatheon_meadia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Eustoma_exaltatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Galactia_regularis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Gelsemium_rankinii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Gelsemium_sempervirens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geum_aleppicum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geum_canadense presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geum_laciniatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geum_macrophyllum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geum_peckii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geum_rivale presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Geum_virginianum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Gordonia_lasianthus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_angustifolius presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_annuus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_atrorubens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_debilis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_decapetalus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_divaricatus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_giganteus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_hirsutus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_laetiflorus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_radula presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Helianthus_strumosus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hexastylis_heterophylla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hexastylis_shuttleworthii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Houstonia_caerulea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Houstonia_purpurea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Houstonia_pusilla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Hypericum_ascyron presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Illicium_floridanum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Impatiens_pallida presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ionactis_linariifolius presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_alba presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_coccinea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_cordatotriloba presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_hederacea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_hederifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_indica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_lacunosa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_pandurata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_pescaprae presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_purpurea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_quamoclit presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ipomoea_sagittata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lathyrus_japonicus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lathyrus_palustris presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Leucaena_leucocephala presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Linnaea_borealis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lobelia_dortmanna presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lobelia_flaccidifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lobelia_glandulosa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lobelia_homophylla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lobelia_kalmii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Lonicera_sempervirens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Maianthemum_stellatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Maianthemum_trifolium presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Menyanthes_trifoliata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Mimulus_alatus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Mimulus_ringens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Mitchella_repens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Moneses_uniflora presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Narcissus_poeticus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Narcissus_pseudonarcissus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Nelumbo_lutea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Nothoscordum_bivalve presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Nuphar_lutea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Nymphaea_odorata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ornithogalum_umbellatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Orthilia_secunda presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oxalis_corniculata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oxalis_debilis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oxalis_dillenii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oxalis_grandis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oxalis_montana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oxalis_rubra presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Oxalis_violacea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Parnassia_glauca presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Paulownia_tomentosa presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phaseolus_polystachios presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_floridana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Phlox_maculata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pinguicula_caerulea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pinguicula_lutea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pinguicula_pumila presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pogonia_ophioglossoides presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Polygonatum_biflorum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Polygonatum_pubescens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Primula_mistassinica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pyrola_americana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pyrola_asarifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pyrola_chlorantha presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Pyrola_elliptica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rhizophora_mangle presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_arenicola presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_argutus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_chamaemorus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_cuneifolius presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_elegantulus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_frondosus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_laciniatus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_occidentalis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_pubescens presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_recurvicaulis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_semisetosus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_trivialis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Rubus_vermontanus presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ruellia_caroliniensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_australis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_calycina presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_cuneata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_engelmanniana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_lancifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_latifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_montevidensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_rigida presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sagittaria_teres presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sarracenia_rubra presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Scheuchzeria_palustris presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Senna_obtusifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Senna_occidentalis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Silene_caroliniana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Silene_dioica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Silene_latifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Silene_noctiflora presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Silene_virginica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sisyrinchium_angustifolium presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sisyrinchium_atlanticum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sisyrinchium_fuscatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sisyrinchium_montanum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sisyrinchium_nashii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Sisyrinchium_rosulatum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Solanum_americanum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Solanum_carolinense presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Solanum_dulcamara presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Solanum_lycopersicum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Solanum_nigrum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Solanum_ptycanthum presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Staphylea_trifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Stewartia_malacodendron presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Stewartia_ovata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Tribulus_cistoides presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Trientalis_borealis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Urena_lobata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Utricularia_cornuta presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Utricularia_juncea presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Verbascum_blattaria presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Vigna_luteola presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_adunca presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_affinis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_bicolor presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_brittoniana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_canadensis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_hastata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_hirsutula presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_labradorica presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_lanceolata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_nephrophylla presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_odorata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_pedata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_renifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_rostrata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_rotundifolia presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_selkirkii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_septemloba presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_septentrionalis presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_striata presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_tricolor presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_triloba presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_tripartita presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Viola_walteri presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Ximenia_americana presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Zephyranthes_atamasca presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Zephyranthes_simpsonii presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence Zephyranthes_treatiae presence or absence of this species 0 absence 1 presence 1158 hf442-14-phenology-sdm.txt R code for data analyses hf442-14-phenology-sdm.txt 12596 22a58601afef274ac6d8ea5dc88c2be4 none R script https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/data/p44/hf442/hf442-14-phenology-sdm.txt script biodiversity conservation informatics regional historical modeling https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=HF258 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf296 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf309 https://harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/exist/apps/datasets/showData.html?id=hf335 centigram per cubic centimeter cubic centimeter per cubic decimeter grams per kilogram