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Harvard Forest Data Archive


Modeling Range Expansion of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid in Eastern North America 1951-2009

Related Publications


  • hf190-01: R code used to model the spread of hemlock woolly adelgid


  • Lead: Matt Fitzpatrick, Aaron Ellison, Evan Preisser
  • Investigators: Joseph Elkinton, Adam Porter
  • Contact: Information Manager
  • Start date: 1951
  • End date: 2009
  • Status: completed
  • Location: Eastern North America
  • Latitude: +33.6 to +48.3
  • Longitude: -93.7 to -59.7
  • Elevation: 0 to 2037 meter
  • Taxa: Adelges tsugae (hemlock woolly adelgid)
  • Release date: 2011
  • Revisions:
  • EML file: knb-lter-hfr.190.8
  • DOI: digital object identifier
  • EDI: data package
  • DataONE: data package
  • Related links:
  • Study type: modeling
  • Research topic: ecological informatics and modelling; invasive plants, pests and pathogens; regional studies
  • LTER core area: disturbance, populations
  • Keywords: hemlock, hemlock woolly adelgid, invasive species, modeling, region
  • Abstract:

    Range expansion by native and exotic species will continue to be a major component of global change. Anticipating the potential effects of changes in species distributions requires models capable of forecasting population spread across realistic, heterogeneous landscapes and subject to spatiotemporal variability in habitat suitability. Several decades of theory and model development, as well as increased computing power and availability of fine-resolution GIS data, now make such models possible. This R code allows simulation of the spread of the hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA, Adelges tsugae) under climatic conditions experienced from December of 1951 until March of 2009. The code describes a spatially explicit stochastic model that combines dynamic dispersal and population processes with fine-resolution maps characterizing spatiotemporal heterogeneity in winter temperature and hemlock abundance to model range expansion of HWA. The model is parameterized using multi-year datasets describing population and dispersal dynamics of HWA and is applied to eastern North America.

  • Methods:

    For a detailed description of the model, see: Fitzpatrick MC, Preisser EL, Porter A, Elkinton J, Ellison AE (in press) Modeling range dynamics in heterogeneous landscapes: Invasion of the hemlock woolly adelgid in eastern North America. Ecological Applications

  • Use:

    This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.

  • Citation:

    Fitzpatrick M, Ellison A, Preisser E. 2011. Modeling Range Expansion of Hemlock Woolly Adelgid in Eastern North America 1951-2009. Harvard Forest Data Archive: HF190 (v.8). Environmental Data Initiative:

Detailed Metadata

hf190-01: R code used to model the spread of hemlock woolly adelgid

  • Compression: none
  • Format: R script
  • Type: script