Harvard Forest

Data Archive

HF457

Simulations of Historical Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric Chemistry at Harvard Forest 1850-2019

Related Publications

Data

• hf457-01: carbon dynamics (preview)
• hf457-02: historical carbon pools (preview)
• hf457-03: historical nitrogen dynamics (preview)
• hf457-04: historical nitrogen pools (preview)
• hf457-05: historical water dynamics (preview)

Overview

• Lead: Charles Driscoll, Pamela Templer, Lucy Hutyra
• Investigators: Afshin Pourmokhtarian, Linghui Meng
• Contact: Information Manager
• Start date: 1800
• End date: 2019
• Status: complete
• Location: Harvard Forest
• Latitude: +42.53 degrees
• Longitude: -72.19 degrees
• Elevation: 340 meter
• Datum: WGS84
• Taxa:
• Release date: 2025
• Language: English
• EML file: knb-lter-hfr.457.1
• DOI: digital object identifier
• EDI: data package
• DataONE: data package
• Related links:
• Canopy-Atmosphere Exchange of Carbon, Water and Energy at Harvard Forest EMS Tower since 1991
• Chronic Nitrogen Amendment Experiment at Harvard Forest since 1988
• Biomass Inventories at Harvard Forest EMS Tower since 1993
• Carbon Cycle Dynamics in Soil Warming Experiments at Harvard Forest 2019
• Study type: modeling
• Research topic: forest-atmosphere exchange; ecological informatics and modelling; historical and retrospective studies; soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics; watershed ecology
• LTER core area: primary production, organic matter movement, mineral cycling, disturbance patterns, land use and land cover change, human-environment interactions
• Keywords: atmospheric deposition, carbon cycling, carbon dioxide, climate change, evapotranspiration, human disturbance, modeling, nitrogen cycling
• Abstract:

  This study is a model application aimed at simulating historical carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and water dynamics at a hardwood forest stand at Harvard Forest from 1850 to 2019. We applied the PnET-CN-daily model with a reconstructed historical climate and air quality scenario derived from field observations and regional model simulations. The model outputs were calibrated with field measurements conducted at Harvard Forest. We used field measurements of aboveground biomass (AGB) and foliar mass near the EMS tower to calibrate ecosystem C pools. Gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and respiration from the EMS eddy flux tower were used to calibrate C fluxes. Net N mineralization data from the chronic N amendment experiment, along with other N dynamics data collected at Harvard Forest, were used to calibrate N pools and fluxes. Additionally, evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water content from the EMS tower were used to calibrate water fluxes.

  To isolate the effects of individual environmental factors on C, N, and water dynamics, we ran the PnET-CN-daily model with a series of theoretical scenarios. These scenarios were developed based on the reconstructed historical climate and air quality data while keeping non-target input factors at pre-industrial levels. The considered environmental factors include climate, carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, atmospheric N deposition, and ozone (O3) concentration. This approach allowed us to decompose the influence of each factor on ecosystem dynamics by comparing model outputs across different scenarios.

• Methods:

  Development of historical hindcast scenarios

  A series of hypothetical scenarios were created to evaluate the influence of past environmental drivers on biogeochemical processes. First, the reconstruction of historical climate and air quality conditions is regarded as a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Second, the climate scenario consists of the reconstructed climate from the BAU with preindustrial levels of CO2 concentration (280 ppm), N deposition (0.1 g N∙m^(-2)∙ yr^(-1)) and O3 concentration (0.02 ppm). For the pre-industrial conditions scenario preindustrial conditions for all inputs were assumed to occur over the entire simulation period (1850 to 2019). The CO2, N deposition, and O3 scenarios consist of the climate scenario combined with historical reconstructed CO2 concentrations, N deposition, and O3 concentrations, respectively, while the other air quality drivers remained at pre-industrial levels.

  The PnET-CN-daily model requires daily input data, including maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), CO₂ concentration, O₃ concentration, and nitrogen (N) deposition (ammonium and nitrate separately). The reconstruction of BAU scenario:

  1. 1. Measurement Period (1991–2019)

  Field Measurements: Daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation, PAR, CO₂ concentration, and O₃ concentration were obtained from the Harvard Forest (HF) Environmental Measurement Station (EMS). Dataset HF004 Canopy-Atmosphere Exchange of Carbon, Water and Energy at Harvard Forest EMS Tower since 1991.

  Nitrogen Deposition: Wet N deposition data from 1983 onward were sourced from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program’s National Trends Network (http://nadp.slh.wisc.edu/data/) at the Quabbin Reservoir site (MA08), located 19.2 km from HF. Dry N deposition was estimated using wet deposition values and dry-to-total deposition ratios provided by the Total Deposition Science Committee (TDep) (https://nadp.slh.wisc.edu/committees/tdep/) of the National Atmospheric Deposition Program.

  2. Pre-Observation Period (1901–1990)

  Temperature and Precipitation: Daily maximum and minimum air temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the PRISM Climate Group database (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). A linear relationship was established between PRISM model simulations (1991–2007) and field observations to calibrate PRISM-derived data for the 1895–1990 period.

  PAR: Historical PAR was estimated in two steps. First, historical solar radiation was reconstructed using the MTCLIM model (https://research.fs.usda.gov/treesearch/39815), which utilizes historical daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation as inputs. Then, daily PAR was estimated based on day length and solar radiation, followed by calibration with HF field measurements.

  CO₂ Concentration: Annual CO₂ concentrations were obtained from the Swiss Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science (IAC) database (https://www.co2.earth/historical-co2-datasets). A linear relationship was developed between IAC data and HF observations to calibrate historical CO₂ levels. The observed daily CO₂ variation at HF was applied to the reconstructed annual data to estimate daily CO₂ concentrations for 1901–1990.

  N Deposition: Historical nitrogen deposition data were based on Fakhraei et al. (2017). Wet NO₃⁻ deposition was reconstructed using empirical relationships between national NOₓ emissions and measured precipitation chemistry (NADP). Since no strong linear relationship was found for NH₄⁺ deposition, an average value from the first five years of available observations (1983–1987) was assumed for the period 1901–1982. Dry deposition was estimated using historical dry-to-wet deposition ratios from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Clean Air Status and Trends Network (CASTNET) (https://www.epa.gov/castnet).

  O₃ Concentration: Historical O₃ concentrations were reconstructed assuming a background O₃ level of 20 ppb in 1900, increasing by 0.45% per year until measured values became available in 1991.

  3. Pre-Industrial Period (1000–1900)

  Climate and air quality data prior to 1901 were reconstructed by repeating values from the 1901–1910 period.

  To evaluate soil water stress, the term Dwater was calculated and is defined as follows: Dwater = Sum(Trans-i / PotTrans-i) / n

  Where Trans-i is the actual transpiration on the ith day, PotTrans-i is the potential transpiration that without considering any restriction in the ith day, n is the number of days when Trans-i is less than PotTrans-i in a year. Dwater has an inverse relationship with water stress. The maximum value of Dwater is 1, which indicates there is no water stress, and soil water stress increases with decreasing Dwater.

• Organization: Harvard Forest. 324 North Main Street, Petersham, MA 01366, USA. Phone (978) 724-3302. Fax (978) 724-3595.

• Project: The Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) program examines ecological dynamics in the New England region resulting from natural disturbances, environmental change, and human impacts. (ROR).

• Funding: National Science Foundation LTER grants: DEB-8811764, DEB-9411975, DEB-0080592, DEB-0620443, DEB-1237491, DEB-1832210. Other funding: USDA-NIFA AFRI Grant 2017-67003-26615

• Use: This dataset is released to the public under Creative Commons CC0 1.0 (No Rights Reserved). Please keep the dataset creators informed of any plans to use the dataset. Consultation with the original investigators is strongly encouraged. Publications and data products that make use of the dataset should include proper acknowledgement.

• License: Creative Commons Zero v1.0 Universal (CC0-1.0)

• Citation: Driscoll C, Templer P, Hutyra L. 2025. Simulations of Historical Impacts of Climate Change and Atmospheric Chemistry at Harvard Forest 1850-2019. Harvard Forest Data Archive: HF457 (v.1). Environmental Data Initiative: https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/feebcdcf0996a46caca71bf753241c73.

Detailed Metadata

hf457-01: carbon dynamics

1. year: year
2. woodnpp_bau: annual wood NPP under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
3. woodnpp_co2: annual wood NPP under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
4. woodnpp_climate: annual wood NPP under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
5. woodnpp_ndep: annual wood NPP under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
6. woodnpp_o3: annual wood NPP under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
7. woodnpp_prein: annual wood NPP under pre industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
8. rootnpp_bau: annual root NPP under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
9. rootnpp_co2: annual root NPP under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
10. rootnpp_climate: annual root NPP under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
11. rootnpp_ndep: annual root NPP under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
12. rootnpp_o3: annual root NPP under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
13. rootnpp_prein: annual root NPP under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
14. decomp_bau: annual decomposition under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
15. decomp_co2: annual decomposition under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
16. decomp_climate: annual decomposition under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
17. decomp_ndep: annual decomposition under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
18. decomp_o3: annual decomposition under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
19. decomp_prein: annual decomposition under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
20. gpp_bau: annual GPP under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
21. gpp_co2: annual GPP under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
22. gpp_climate: annual GPP under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
23. gpp_ndep: annual GPP under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
24. gpp_o3: annual GPP under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
25. gpp_prein: annual GPP under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
26. nee_bau: annual NEE under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
27. nee_co2: annual NEE under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
28. nee_climate: annual NEE under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
29. nee_ndep: annual NEE under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
30. nee_o3: annual NEE under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
31. nee_prein: annual NEE under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)

hf457-02: historical carbon pools

1. year: year
2. foliarnpp_bau: annual foliar NPP under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
3. foliarnpp_co2: annual foliar NPP under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
4. foliarnpp_climate: annual foliar NPP under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
5. foliarnpp_ndep: annual foliar NPP under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
6. foliarnpp_o3: annual foliar NPP under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
7. foliarnpp_prein: annual foliar NPP under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
8. woodmass_bau: annual wood mass under BAU scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
9. woodmass_co2: annual wood mass under CO2 scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
10. woodmass_climate: annual wood mass under climate scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
11. woodmass_ndep: annual wood mass under N deposition scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
12. woodmass_o3: annual wood mass under O3 scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
13. woodmass_prein: annual wood mass under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
14. rootmass_bau: annual root mass under BAU scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
15. rootmass_co2: annual root mass under CO2 scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
16. rootmass_climate: annual root mass under climate scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
17. rootmass_ndep: annual root mass under N deposition scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
18. rootmass_o3: annual root mass under O3 scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
19. rootmass_prein: annual root mass under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
20. som_bau: annual soil organic matter under BAU scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
21. som_co2: annual soil organic matter under CO2 scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
22. som_climate: annual soil organic matter under climate scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
23. som_ndep: annual soil organic matter under N deposition scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
24. som_o3: annual soil organic matter under O3 scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)
25. som_prein: annual soil organic matter under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gram / missing value: NA)

hf457-03: historical nitrogen dynamics

1. year: year
2. nbalance_bau: annual nitrogen balance under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
3. nbalance_co2: annual nitrogen balance under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
4. nbalance_climate: annual nitrogen balance under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
5. nbalance_ndep: annual nitrogen balance under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
6. nbalance_o3: annual nitrogen balance under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
7. nbalance_prein: annual nitrogen balance under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
8. netnmin_bau: annual net nitrogen mineralization under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
9. netnmin_co2: annual net nitrogen mineralization under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
10. netnmin_climate: annual net nitrogen mineralization under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
11. netnmin_ndep: annual net nitrogen mineralization under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
12. netnmin_o3: annual net nitrogen mineralization under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
13. netnmin_prein: annual net nitrogen mineralization under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
14. ndrain_bau: annual nitrogen drainage under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
15. ndrain_co2: annual nitrogen drainage under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
16. ndrain_climate: annual nitrogen drainage under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
17. ndrain_ndep: annual nitrogen drainage under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
18. ndrain_o3: annual nitrogen drainage under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
19. ndrain_prein: annual nitrogen drainage under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
20. ndep_bau: annual nitrogen deposition under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
21. ndep_co2: annual nitrogen deposition under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
22. ndep_climate: annual nitrogen deposition under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
23. ndep_ndep: annual nitrogen deposition under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
24. ndep_o3: annual nitrogen deposition under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
25. ndep_prein: annual nitrogen deposition under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)

hf457-04: historical nitrogen pools

1. year: year
2. woodn_bau: annual wood nitrogen content under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
3. woodn_co2: annual wood nitrogen content under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
4. woodn_climate: annual wood nitrogen content under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
5. woodn_ndep: annual wood nitrogen content under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
6. woodn_o3: annual wood nitrogen content under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
7. woodn_prein: annual wood nitrogen content under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
8. rootn_bau: annual root nitrogen content under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
9. rootn_co2: annual root nitrogen content under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
10. rootn_climate: annual root nitrogen content under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
11. rootn_ndep: annual root nitrogen content under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
12. rootn_o3: annual root nitrogen content under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
13. rootn_prein: annual root nitrogen content under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
14. son_bau: annual soil organic nitrogen content under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
15. son_co2: annual soil organic nitrogen content under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
16. son_climate: annual soil organic nitrogen content under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
17. son_ndep: annual soil organic nitrogen content under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
18. son_o3: annual soil organic nitrogen content under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
19. son_prein: annual soil organic nitrogen content under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
20. littern_bau: annual litter nitrogen content under BAU scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
21. littern_co2: annual litter nitrogen content under CO2 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
22. littern_climate: annual litter nitrogen content under climate scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
23. littern_ndep: annual litter nitrogen content under N deposition scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
24. littern_o3: annual litter nitrogen content under O3 scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)
25. littern_prein: annual litter nitrogen content under pre-industrial scenario (unit: gramPerYear / missing value: NA)

hf457-05: historical water dynamics

1. year: year
2. prec_bau: annual precipitation under BAU scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
3. prec_co2: annual precipitation under CO2 scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
4. prec_climate: annual precipitation under climate scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
5. prec_ndep: annual precipitation under N deposition scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
6. prec_o3: annual precipitation under O3 scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
7. prec_prein: annual precipitation under pre-industrial scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
8. et_bau: annual evapotranspiration under BAU scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
9. et_co2: annual evapotranspiration under CO2 scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
10. et_climate: annual evapotranspiration under climate scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
11. et_ndep: annual evapotranspiration under N deposition scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
12. et_o3: annual evapotranspiration under O3 scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
13. et_prein: annual evapotranspiration under pre-industrial scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
14. drain_bau: annual drainage under BAU scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
15. drain_co2: annual drainage under CO2 scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
16. drain_climate: annual drainage under climate scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
17. drain_ndep: annual drainage under N deposition scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
18. drain_o3: annual drainage under O3 scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
19. drain_prein: annual drainage under pre-industrial scenario (unit: centimeterPerYear / missing value: NA)
20. dwater_bau: annual average soil water stress under BAU scenario (unit: dimensionless / missing value: NA)
21. dwater_co2: annual average soil water stress under CO2 scenario (unit: dimensionless / missing value: NA)
22. dwater_climate: annual average soil water stress under climate scenario (unit: dimensionless / missing value: NA)
23. dwater_ndep: annual average soil water stress under N deposition scenario (unit: dimensionless / missing value: NA)
24. dwater_o3: annual average soil water stress under O3 scenario (unit: dimensionless / missing value: NA)
25. dwater_prein: annual average soil water stress under pre-industrial scenario (unit: dimensionless / missing value: NA)